CENTRAL ASIA
REGIONAL ELECTRICITY EXPORT POTENTIAL STUDY

The Central Asian Republics are endowed with significant energy related natural resources. However, the distribution of these resources is highly skewed. The Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan have abundant hydropower potential but negligible amounts of commercially exploitable fossil fuels. In contrast, Kazakhstan has significant reserves of oil, gas and coal; Uzbekistan has substantial gas reserves as well as some oil and coal and Turkmenistan also has substantial gas reserves together with some oil.

During the Soviet Union era these resources were managed on a regional basis. The hydropower resources in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan were operated primarily as an irrigation system with power generation being secondary. Energy systems were then designed to take account of the location of various energy sources. The result was a system in which energy was exchanged regionally among the various republics. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union, however, the scope of regional exchanges, which were turned into trade in energy, has declined as the individual republics have focused on achieving a greater level of energy self sufficiency.

The fossil fuel rich countries, especially Kazakhstan, have been able to leverage their energy resources into a significant volume of energy exports, accessing markets outside Central Asia. In contrast, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan face energy shortages in the winter and attempts to secure major export markets for their summer hydropower surpluses have not succeeded. The political changes in Afghanistan and sustained economic growth in other neighboring countries such as China, Iran, Pakistan and Russia, however, have raised expectations in the region that opportunities may materialize to export significant amounts of hydropower outside the region. Such an expectation has further raised hopes that support can be obtained for investment in major new generation facilities.

The Central Asian republics have asked the World Bank to help identify the potential for electricity exports outside the region and also the impediments that need to be addressed to realize such potential. However, these countries also need to assess how best to meet their own future requirements for electricity. This study, therefore, addresses (i) options for meeting future electricity demand within the region; (ii) the potential scope and location of export markets outside the region and (iii) the prospects for accessing these markets.

Available Documents:
Regional Electricity Export Potential Study - English version (950KB, PDF)
Regional Electricity Export Potential Study (Appendix Volume) - English version (1.7MB, PDF)
Regional Electricity Export Potential Study - Russian version (1.24MB, PDF)
Regional Electricity Export Potential Study (Appendix Volume) - Russian version (1.98MB, PDF)